The past four years, the Diamondbacks went into spring training with what seemed to be a reasonable hope to contend.

Sure, some things had to go right (If Brandon Webb is healthy . . . ), but it didn’t feel like too much of a stretch to say they could approach 85 wins.

It’s harder to feel that way this year. Coming off a 97-loss season, we’re just not sure we see contention on the immediate horizon.

Look, we don’t enjoy predicting gloom going into the year. No one likes watching losing baseball, especially those of us who are around for 162 games.

And, of course, the unexpected happens every year. The Giants won the World Series and the Padres won 90 games; that’s without even looking outside the division for examples.

But, from our perspective, this still is a crucial year for the Diamondbacks. Just maybe not in the win column. What happens this year will help set the stage for future seasons, when the club might have the firepower to get back to the top of the division.

Here are five important developments to track this year as the Diamondbacks try to get themselves back on the road to contention.

- 1. Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Beyond seeing if Daniel Hudson can pitch well for a full season and if Ian Kennedy can do so again, the development of prospect Jarrod Parker could be huge if he becomes a top-of-the-rotation guy. The Diamondbacks likely will bring him along slowly this year, but most expect him to get at least a taste of the big leagues this season.

- 2. Familiar refrain for Justin Upton. Even in a “down” year, Upton was a pretty solid offensive contributor. Let’s keep that in mind. Plus, his defense improved immensely from 2009 to 2010. But we continue to wonder if he can take that next step to stardom. If so, everything changes with the Diamondbacks’ lineup. He still has the ability and the drive to be an MVP-caliber player.

- 3. Draft day. We’ve been hearing for a while now that this year’s draft is stacked, and the sentiment isn’t changing as we get closer to June. “This is a great year to pick No. 3 and No. 7,” a rival scout said this week. That’s where the Diamondbacks pick, and if everything works out, they could land a frontline pitcher and an everyday player. Just as the 2009 draft was important to restock the farm system with depth, this year’s represents a huge opportunity to acquire a pair of impact players.

- 4. Tracking the farm. Aside from Parker, most of the potential frontline guys in the minors likely will start blending into the major-league roster sometime in 2013. Seeing how development goes for hitters Matt Davidson, Chris Owings, Bobby Borchering and others will give a glimpse of what the Diamondbacks can expect when they reach the big leagues.

- 5. Bullpen stability. A trouble spot for years, the Diamondbacks badly need someone they can count on in their bullpen. For the short term, the Diamondbacks will look to J.J. Putz to solidify things. In the long term, perhaps it’s Juan Gutierrez, if he can gain consistency. Or perhaps it’s newcomer David Hernandez, the big arm in the deal that sent Mark Reynolds to Baltimore.

Reach The Heat Index at nick.piecoro@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-8680.