by Nick Piecoro – May. 17, 2012 02:49 PM
The Republic | azcentral.com
DENVER – The Diamondbacks will play their 40th game Friday night, meaning they’re just about a quarter of the way through the season. It’s still early — when you need triple digits to count the number of remaining games, the phrase still applies — but last season’s epic playoff races serve as reminders that every game counts, whether it’s May or late September.
With that in mind, let’s review what’s happened so far, with an eye on what needs to occur for the Diamondbacks to turn things around.
1. Injuries: The Diamondbacks expected to open the season without shortstop Stephen Drew, without whom they were able to win the division last year, but they weren’t expecting to lose their center fielder, Chris Young, or their No. 2 starter, Daniel Hudson.
With the exception of Drew, the Diamondbacks were able to stay healthy last season while their top rivals in the National League West suffered key injuries. The Diamondbacks don’t have the kind of depth — at least not among position players — to where they can suffer too many losses.
The good news is, Young, Hudson and Drew, in that order, appear to be nearing returns. Barring setbacks, they all could be back with the team by mid-June.
2. Slow starters: Last year, the Diamondbacks had a combination of guys who had career years and guys who came out of nowhere to be surprise contributors. Most of them seem to have fallen off so far this season.
Right-hander Josh Collmenter struggled in four starts before getting shifted to the bullpen. Third baseman Ryan Roberts is hitting close to .200. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt has only two home runs.
And then there’s right fielder Justin Upton, who last season put together the kind of year many had predicted for him. But through the first month and a half, Upton has struggled, collecting just 12 RBIs through 39 games.
Perhaps it’s because of the jammed thumb he suffered during the first series of the year. Or perhaps it’s a matter of him just not feeling right at the plate.
Whatever the reason, the Diamondbacks probably won’t contend without more production from Upton.
3. Clutch hits: Numbers guys will tell you that hitting with runners in scoring position might not be the skill that some think it is. There’s little evidence to suggest it’s repeatable from year to year and might instead be a matter of good and bad luck in small sample sizes.
Whatever the case may be, the Diamondbacks haven’t been good in those situations, and it’s been costing them games.
Entering Thursday, the Diamondbacks were hitting just .229 with runners in scoring position, with Upton, who was expected to be their main run producer, going just 3 for 27 (.111).
In the big picture, the team numbers aren’t that bad. The .229 average ranks ninth in the league. But given the way the Diamondbacks have played in close games, the lack of production has felt crippling.
4. Close and late: That brings us another area in which the Diamondbacks thrived last season but have fallen off this year: winning close games. Last year, they lost just four games in which they led after seven innings. They already have lost four of those games this year.
Tied into that is an inability to win one-run games. After going 28-16 last season, they are 4-10 in one-run games this year. One-run games are generally considered a byproduct of luck. Baseball folks like to say that luck balances out. But the luck didn’t balance out for the Diamondbacks last season, so who’s to say it will this year?
5. Pitching: Perhaps most surprising, the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff hasn’t been very reliable.
Their rotation entered Thursday fourth from the bottom of the league with a 4.34 ERA. Granted, those numbers are mostly inflated by their fifth starters’ struggles — Collmenter (9.82 ERA as a starter) and rookie Pat Corbin (5.73) haven’t been reliable — but ace Ian Kennedy’s ERA is about a run higher than it was last season.
The bullpen hasn’t been as dependable, either. A unit that last season blew 13 saves, tied for the second-fewest in the league, already has blown five.
The Diamondbacks entered Thursday at 16-22, the same record they had after 38 games last season. No one thought they were bound for an NL West title, but that’s what happened, partly because they remade roughly a third of their roster.
If the Diamondbacks’ current players can’t sort out the problems they’ve encountered through the first six weeks, the club may have no other choice but to reshuffle the roster again.
Up next: Kansas City Royals
Royals update: Not much has gone right for the Royals so far this season. It started in spring training when they lost C Salvador Perez to a knee injury and RHP Joakim Soria to an elbow injury. More recently, they lost LHP Danny Duffy, also to an elbow injury. 1B Eric Hosmer, who is expected to be a key part of the Royals lineup for years, is struggling, hitting just .174 with five home runs. LF Alex Gordon has a .250 average. RF Jeff Francoeur isn’t doing much, either, hitting .248 with one homer. 3B Mike Moustakas has been a bright spot, with a .303 average, 11 doubles and five homers. Their pitching staff ranks 12th in the league with a 4.37 ERA. The starters have a 5.21 ERA (12th) and relievers a 3.30 ERA (5th).
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